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发现
- 去找1While aggregate spending of the employed was down by 10 percent during the initial months of the pandemic, the spending of unemployment benefit recipients 增加 10 percent, a pattern which is likely explained by the $600 federal weekly benefit supplement.
- 去找2Among the unemployed who experience a substantial delay in receiving benefits, 支出下降20%.
2020年7月
大约五分之一的美国人.S. workers received unemployment insurance benefits in June 2020, which is five times greater than the highest UI recipiency rate previously recorded. Yet little is known about how unemployment benefits are affecting the economy today. To fill this gap, we study the consumption of benefit recipients during the pandemic.
正常情况下, spending among unemployment benefit recipients falls by about seven percent in response to unemployment because typical benefits replace only a fraction of lost earnings. 然而, 2020年3月, 冠状病毒援助, 救援, and Economic 安全 (CARES) Act added a $600 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits, replacing lost earnings by more than 100 percent for two-thirds of unemployed workers eligible, 据估计. 结果是, for benefit spells which begin after workers receive this supplement, we find dramatically different spending patterns for the unemployed compared to normal times. Although average spending fell for all households as the economy shut down at the start of the pandemic, 我们发现失业家庭实际上 增加 their spending beyond pre-unemployment levels once they began receiving benefits. The fact that spending by benefit recipients rose during the pandemic instead of falling, 就像平时一样, suggests that the $600 supplement has helped households to smooth consumption and stabilized aggregate demand.
We also examine spending patterns of the unemployed while waiting for benefits to arrive. Households that receive benefits soon after job loss show no relative decline in spending, while households that wait two months to receive benefits due to processing delays have large spending declines. Compared to the employed, 支出下降20% prior to receiving benefits. This suggests that delays have imposed substantial hardship on benefit recipients.
The $600 supplement to unemployment insurance benefits is scheduled to expire at the end of July. Our estimates suggest that expiration will result in large spending cuts, with potentially negative effects on both households and macroeconomic activity. The estimates also provide a guide to projecting the economic consequences of alternative supplement levels. 最后, our results also underscore the importance of making unemployment benefits broadly available and bolstering states’ ability to process claims promptly.
找到一个: While aggregate spending of the employed was down by 10 percent during the initial months of the pandemic, the spending of unemployment benefit recipients 增加 10 percent, a pattern which is likely explained by the $600 federal weekly benefit supplement.
发现二: Among the unemployed who experience a substantial delay in receiving benefits, 支出下降20%.
致谢
我们感谢萨曼莎·安德森, Therese Bonomo, 艾丽卡亡灵, 伯纳德•何, 罗伯特McDowall, 玛丽莲•纽曼, Tanya Sonthalia和Sruthi Rao. We also thank colleagues at the 12bet官方 研究所 and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich for their comments and suggestions. All statistics from JPMCI data, including medians, reflect cells with multiple observations. The opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not represent the views of 12bet官方 & Co.
作者:
戴安娜•法雷尔(Diana Farrell) 12bet官方研究所，总裁 & 首席执行官
彼得•Ganong Assistant Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
菲奥娜格雷格, 12bet官方 研究所, Director of Consumer 研究
Max Liebeskind, 12bet官方 研究所, Consumer 研究 Associate
帕斯卡尔•诺埃尔Neubauer Family Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
乔•Vavra Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business